Shoots Brah!

This post was gonna be kinda long and I’m not gonna finish writing it up until tomorrow so I’m just gonna split it up.  I am getting super pumped for this weekend’s fights!  The build up from the countdown show and the prefight interviews got me wishing the weekend would come already.  The main card on UFC 100 is stacked, but the undercard is a little underwhelming.  There are some fighters that I am definitely looking forward to seeing, but none of the fights are making my jump outta my seat.  Its not that they are terrible fights, because I am sure they will all be pretty entertaining, but only a couple of the fight will mean something to the future of the fighters.   The 2 fights that kinda matter are the Coleman fight that will help determine if either of the fighters currently have a place in the LHW div or in the UFC and the Miller fight that will either end UFC career or show that Miller is just a middle of the pack fighter.  I think the Dollaway, Jones and Kim fights are just to help groom them for the future but hold no immediate implications for them.  But here goes the predictions and breakdown and stuff.

Mark Coleman vs. Stephan Bonnar-
In Mark Coleman’s head, he thinks he is still a force in the LHW div and one of the few guys or only guy who has all the tools to beat the reigning champ Machida. I don’t believe any of that.  He hasn’t evolved with the sport and his one dimensional style is no longer the most effective strategy.  His wrestling and strength are his biggest asset and could take Bonnar down and smother him.  His gas tank is always a question and his striking is barely adequate (he can still throw bombs tho). 

Bonnar is coming off a hard loss to Jon Jones (probably a fight the UFC gave him to win) and an almost 2 yr lay off before that.  The loss in his first fight back could have been partly due to ring rust and party to that Jon Jones is a stud but he didn’t have a stellar showing there.  Bonnar is the more well rounded fighter, good BBJ, solid wrestling, and a wide range in striking skills (muay thai, tkd, boxing).  He has a great chin and in all his losses he has never been finished (I’m not counting the loss to Machida by cut).  Bonnar will also be the longer and quicker fighter and will hold most of the advantages here.

If Coleman can take Bonnar down and hold him there for 3 rounds then he can win the fight, but I think Bonnar will take this.  Bonnar will keep the fight standing and if it does go to the ground he will always be threatening with a sub or will be able to get up pretty easily.  Coleman will gas in the second and Bonnar will capitalize and earn a TKO win with 1:48 left in the round. Bonnar will then be an upper/middle tier gate keeper for the LHW div.  He just doesn’t seem like he has it in him to beat the contenders in the UFC but I don’t see him getting dropped after he helped bring the UFC to where it is now.  Coleman is still in the UFC hall of fame and even after he is dropped, he will earn cash by fighting in smaller shows.

Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller-
Does anyone else find it kinda counterproductive when a fighter is a vegan? Cuz I don’t think a fighter can get all of the nutrients he needs from eating no meat, dairy and stuff like that.  If Mac Danzig can pull it off and win then good for him, but he’s been on a 2 fight skid and should be one more loss away from getting axed.  Would getting kicked out of the UFC because you can’t win due to your malnutrition be a good reason to change your lifestyle?  He might have to think of that soon.  He just doesn’t seem as quick or strong as other lightweights.  Danzig does havesome good boxing and BJJ.  He fights intelligently but he can get overwhelmed by a more aggressive fighter and forced out of his gamplan.

After Jim Miller got outboxed by Gray Maynard, I was surprised because I thought Miller would have the advantage standing in that fight or at least be able to take down Maynard.  I was wrong and found out his striking isn’t that good and his takedown need work, but he is a really scrappy fighter who is always going.  I would figure he would be working hard on those things after his last fight and should be tons better than that.  I think his grappling is better than Danzig’s because he is so relentless.

I got Miller taking this fight by submission (RNC). He is going to crowd Danzig and take it to the ground, pound on him a bit and work for a sub in the 3rd.  He might start getting out boxed by Danzig, but won’t get beat up enough to where it will change the outcome.

Jon Jones vs. Jake O’Brien-
Jon Jones is being talked up as the best prospect in the UFC and that he is the one that will take Machida’s belt in a couple of years.  Jones is super innovative muay that fighter that gives his opponent different looks and effectively confuses them without sacrificing technique.  He also has great greco skills and can bring fights to the mat quickly.  His fight against Bonnar was pretty much a 15 min highlight reel for him.  Even though he does have all this tremendous skill and potential, there are questions about his game.  Can he fight off his back effectively and how good is his submission and submission defense skills.  We have yet to see all of that, but he is still young and the UFC is doing a great job bringing him up slowly to get him experience. 

Jake O’Brien isn’t really a well liked or known fighter.  I hear a lot of people saying that he is not an exciting fighter because he just takes his opponent down and lays on them for 15 mins.  Wrestling is his one skill and he uses it to win fights because most guys can’t stop him from taking them down or get up after the takedown.  His striking game still needs quite a bit of work, but with such a great wrestling base, he can rely on that until he develops into an all around fighter.

Jones has enough skills to negate O’Brien’s takedowns and will dictate where the fight takes place.   Look for the Jon “Bones” Jones fight to make the broadcast when he puts away O’Brien in the first, TKO by knee followed by a jumping elbow to a grounded O’Brien after the knee drops him.  So looking forward to seeing him fight!  He said he is only at 17% of his potential… imagine that at 100%!

Dong Hyun Kim vs. TJ Grant-
The “Stun Gun” is coming off the decision loss (which became a NC) to Karo Parysian recently where he gassed out in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  He also looked really tired in his UFC debut against Jason Tan and his second UFC fight with Brown.  If he can get his cardio up to par I really like his chances against Grant.  His judo skills pose a threat to anyone across the octagon (he even threw Karo!) and could dictate where the fight ends up.  While his strength is his grappling I think he has better stand up skills than Grant.  6 of his 11 wins come by KO or TKO.

Grant is a great prospect from Canada and surprised many with his win over Chonan. Grant is great on the ground and a crazy 12 of his 14 wins come by submission.  He is super slick on the ground but his standup is just OK.  His best shot is to take Kim down and work his magic, but with Kim’s judo background, it could be a very tough thing to accomplish.

If Kim’s cardio is good, he will take this fight by a RNC in 2.  I see him controlling the fight, throwing Grant a few times from the clinch and doing his jumping on the back of standing guys thing, but this time pulling it off correctly and getting a sub.

CB Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor-
CB is kinda Chael Sonnen-esque in the way he has this smug douchey face, seems to put himself in dumb situations and gets submitted twice in the exact same way or submitted and fake taps to escape and is pretty cocky.  Maybe thats why people hate him.  He does come from a great wrestling background and a good camp.  He also has a wide range of submissions (like the peruvian necktie) he cam pull off.  His submission awareness is questionable, but he has the wrestling chops to make up for most mistakes.

Tom Lawlor is the dude who knocked out the other dude in the bathroom who claimed he didn’t get knocked out on the TUF 8 season.  He is also a good wrestler, but his striking and submissions aren’t quite at Dollaway’s level. 

I think Dollaway gets his stuff together and pulls off a win.  CB by UD in a mainly standup battle.

Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty-

Hmmm…  I think  both guys are wrestlers/grapplers.  Grice just got knocked out in his last fight in a controversial stoppage and Gugerty got choked by Spencer Fisher.  I am guessing Gugerty by armbar in 2 because I don’t really know…

On a side note, Junior Dos Santos is out of UFC 102… Damn I was looking forward to seeing that fight against Justin McCully…  Just to see where Dos Santos stands and if he can make waves in the HW div.  Plus its one less fight to look forward too while I’m at UFC 102.   UPDATE: Damn looks like Dos Santos will be facing Cro-Cop at UFC 103… Robbed of a good fight… but still looking forward to seeing CC back in the UFC!